Late last night I was reading the news online when a new story popped up on the New York Times website and soon I was seeing similar reports on the Washington Post site, and then this morning it was a top story in the Council on Foreign Relations daily news brief. The story is, of course, that Israel and the Palestinians will start direct talks, hosted by the United States, this September. Any time the two sides are willing to talk to one another it is good news, but as someone who has watched, thought and written about this conflict, I think that optimism, if it is warranted here, needs to be of the cautious variety. There are still many significant obstacles, including, as The Economist has noted, the question of whether or not building will resume in the settlements in late September.  One other interesting thing that I noticed in the Economist piece was that it closed with a quote from Israeli President Shimon Peres who seems to have embraced real politic, and has suggested (as others have before) that Israel may need to make some very difficult sacrifices in order to finally achieve peace.

As any observer of the Middle East knows, things can and do change very quickly in terms of the political and security situation, so it is hard to guess how this impending deadline or the passage of this deadline might impact negotiations, be they direct or indirect. In addition to the ostensible lifting of the building freeze, there are other factors that threaten to derail talks, including for Israel the potential distraction of renewed hostilities with Hezbollah and the looming threat of a nuclear Iran. For the Palestinians, perhaps even more so than the Israelis at this point, Gaza presents a particularly thorny challenge, since Hamas is currently in total control of the territory. Whatever deal President Abbas is able to negotiate with Israel will inevitably have to take into account both the fact that the Palestinian Authority is not in control of Gaza, and that Hamas -their political and military rival - presently is.

I will certainly watch with interest as this story develops and talks get underway in the fall. It will be especially interesting to see what kinds of obstacles arise and how the parties involved, including the US, EU and Russia, approach them. These key world powers may not be able to solve the crisis or make the key decisions, but they do have, once again, an opportunity to try and help set the tone for a discussion that might lead to a positive outcome in an otherwise rather bleak landscape.

-Daniel E. Levenson

Publisher and Editoin-Chief

The New Vilna Review