In a piece by Isabel Kershner posted on the New York Times website on August 23, it was noted that Prime Minister Netanyahu had addressed his cabinet on the potential for success in the proposed direct talks which are to start next week in Washington. Ms. Kershner reported that Mr. Netanyahu told those assembled for the meeting that a lasting agreement between Israel and the Palestinians “…would be based on ‘three initial components’: sustainable security arrangements; recognition of Israel as the ‘national state of the Jewish people,’ meaning that any return of Palestinian refugees would be ‘realized in the territory of the Palestinian state’ ; and the end of conflict between Israel a demilitarized Palestinian state.”

These are laudable goals, and I agree that they are necessary conditions for the implementation of a lasting two-state solution, but the prime minister must know as well as anyone that the third element – the end of the conflict between Israel and a demilitarized Palestinian state seems like a rather unlikely scenario given the state of affairs in Gaza. I find it exceedingly difficult to believe that Hamas is in a place right now where they would be willing to agree to the first two criteria, let alone the third. Israel may have had limited success in the past with creating short durations of cessation in hostilities with Hamas, but for the terrorist organization to agree to working cooperatively with Israel on security issues, to give up on the idea of allowing Palestinian refugees to resettle in Israel, let alone to give up their weapons and live in a state without an army, seems like it would take a fairly drastic ideological and operational shift among the Hamas leadership.

It would seem that what Mr. Netanyahu is really doing in these remarks is reassuring his right-leaning political base that when he comes to Washington next week that he will not make concessions in places which will directly threaten Israel’s security, but since he is also undoubtedly aware of the major obstacle that that status of Gaza poses to such conditions, it would also seem that he is lowering expectations domestically before going abroad. The same can be seen on the Palestinian side – Aron Heller wrote in another New York Times piece that “… the Palestinians have threatened to walk away from the talks if any settlement activity resumes.” Given that the settlement freeze is set to expire on September 26 and the level of domestic political pressure on the Natenyahu government to lift such a ban, it would seem that the Palestinians are also looking for ways to lower expectations and potentially give themselves a relatively easy out, should they be unhappy with the direction in which talks are going later next month.

David Makovsky notes in a piece posted on the Washington Post website yesterday that from what he has seen, that the relationship has been improving between President Abbas and Prime Minister Netanyahu, with increased cooperation when it comes to security matters. I think this is good news, but it still doesn’t tell us what can or should be done about Hamas. I have written before of my belief that better relations between Israel and the PA will help delegitimize Hamas, and Mr. Makovsky’s comments on PA efforts to remove Hamas ideologues from teaching positions in West Bank schools is heartening but there is a long way to go before the PA can once again be thought of as the main representative of the Palestinian people. One interesting point that Mr. Makovsky raises is the potential for Iranian interference with direct talks, writing “Are there risks to direct talks ? Of course. Abbas told me that Iran gives Hamas $500 million a year, and it is likely that Tehran will try to upend negotiations.”

As I look ahead to the coming weeks, my own personal feeling is that these talks are not likely to get very far. I certainly hope I am incorrect in this analysis, but with both Palestinian and Israeli leaders scaling back expectations before they have even come to Washington, the prospect of Iranian and/or Hamas interference, Hamas still firmly in control of Gaza and the settlement freeze set to expire in a little over a month, I would unfortunately be very surprised if these talks lead to real progress, let alone a lasting comprehensive solution.

-Daniel E. Levenson

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief

The New Vilna Review